Analysis of geothermal technology development in the Colombian energy transition to 2050 using system dynamics

Abstract

This research analyzes the current and future prospects of geothermal energy in Colombia using a system dynamics model. The study focuses on evaluating geothermal potential linked to hydrothermal systems, surface manifestations like geysers, and areas near volcanoes. The model, projecting up to 2050, offers a comprehensive assessment of national geothermal potential, considering technical, economic, regulatory, and social factors that influence its integration into the energy matrix. Key findings highlight the need for adjustments to the existing regulatory framework, which currently lacks sufficient incentives for geothermal project development. Additionally, the study underscores the importance of implementing stronger government policies and incentives to promote this renewable energy source. Proper social and environmental management, with active involvement of local communities, is also identified as crucial for project success. The system dynamics approach effectively models the complex interrelationships between variables shaping the future of geothermal energy in Colombia. The developed model serves as a novel tool for technological foresight in this strategic field, identifying obstacles and opportunities to unlock Colombia's significant geothermal potential and providing a systemic perspective on this critical issue for the national energy transition.