Multi-temporal assessment of wind, solar, and hydropower resources for off-grid microgrid

Abstract

For a proposed multi-source all-renewable microgrid in Nigeria’s Middle-belt region, this paper presents a multi-temporal approach to the investigation of the uncertainty in the potential of renewable energy resources. The wind, solar, and hydropower resources for a proposed multi-source all-renewable off-grid community microgrid are considered using an array of probabilistic techniques. The peculiar variances in the location’s climate throughout the year make the more common method of annual models of renewable resources unsuitable for power system planning. Consequently, a more granular model of its renewable resources over time is needed. Therefore, for the chosen location, for each renewable resource, a composite multitemporal maximum-likelihood estimation-based (MLE) probabilistic model for characterization is developed. A total of 39 probabilistic models are developed. Up to 40% improvement in the accuracy of the statistical measures for renewable resource uncertainty was observed. Multi-temporal approach provides more accurate information for power system planning over time than the conventional approach of single aggregate models, especially for hydropower, which is strongly affected by the relatively sporadic occurrence of rainfall. The study shows that solar energy is promising, hydropower potential is seasonal and complementary, and wind potential is low at the location considered in this study.