Uncertainty model for rate of change of frequency analysis with high renewable energy participation

Abstract

Large-scale integration of inverter-based renewables is displacing synchronous machine generation, causing a reduction in the inertia of electrical power systems. This reduction is reflected in an increase in the rate of change of frequency (RoCoF). Additionally, the variation of the RoCoF will depend on the uncertainty associated with the generation of non-conventional renewable energy sources. For the planning of the operation of the system, it is essential to know the range of variation of the RoCoF when there are disturbances in the system and uncertainties in the generation of non-conventional sources of renewable energy. This paper proposes to establish the calculation of a confidence interval of the RoCoF variation that considers these uncertainties. So, this paper proposes a method to consider these uncertainties based on the probabilistic point estimate method (PEM); considering multiple renewable non-conventional sources with correlated or uncorrelated behavior in their powers injected into the system. On the other hand, as there are different proposals to calculate the RoCoF, this paper presents the application of the uncertainty model with three different RoCoF proposed calculation methods.