Forecasting smoked rubber sheets price based on a deep learning model with long short-term memory

Abstract

This research aimed to create suitable forecasting models with long-short term memory (LSTM) from time series data, the price of rubber smoked sheets (RSS3) using 2,631 data from the Rubber Authority of Thailand for the past 10 years. The data was divided into two sets: first series 2,105 data points were used to create the LSTM prediction model; second series 526 data points were used to estimate forecasting performance using the root mean square error (RMSE), the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), and accuracy rate of the model. The results showed that the most suitable forecasting model for time series data, with a total of 9 LSTM layers comprised of 3 primary LSTMs. Each LSTM layer has the number of neurons 100, 150, and 200 to obtain an optimal neural network of the LSTM technique. The number of epochs and iteration was 30, 40, and 50. Dropout layers between each LSTM layer have a probability of 30%. The results of the test to measure the performance of the time series forecasting data showed that the 9-layer model with the LSTM model architecture of LSTM 3 layers gave the best forecast, with RMSE of 2.4121, MAPE of 0.0413 and 95.88% accuracy rate.